Microtransactions, including sales of virtual goods in online games, are expected to have the highest impact on the course of the video game industry in the next five years according to data gathered by Venture Beat's "Mapping the Future of the Games Industry" survey. Advertising revenue, in terms of impact, came in next-to-last place behind other factors like mobile gaming and user-generated content. The survey results are based on over 160 responses gathered from the GamesBeat '09 gaming conference attendees, games industry professionals, and visitors to the Venture Beat site.
More than 66% of all respondents to the survey stated that they expected microtransactions to have a high impact on the games industry's future. Advertising revenue, by contrast, was believed to have high impact by only 21% of respondents. Games on mobile and smart phones came in second place, with 61% of all respondents. User-generated content came in third, at 43% of all respondents. Voice recognition came in last place at 18% of all respondents.
Respondents were also asked to evaluate which game platforms would have the most potential in the future. iPhone came in first place with 74%, followed by social networks at 64%, casual Web games at 62%, and consoles in dead last at 57%. It is worth noticing that social networks and casual games are both platforms that widely support microtransaction sales of virtual goods, and Apple just announced in-game microtransaction support as part of its upcoming iPhone 3.0 OS.
It's significant that developers and players in the games industry are recognizing the impact potential of microtransactions in gaming. Investments in virtual goods business throughout 2008 suggest strong financial confidence, while Chinese companies like TenCent and The9 make the model's profit potential obvious. Once an industry decides on something as the next big thing, that enthusiasm tends to begin turning predictions into self-fulfilling prophecies.
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